MIN +3 · O/U 44 · implied MIN 20.5 · generated Nov 9, 9:33 PM
The backup quarterback has capped volume all season; the yardage and receptions unders rest on that trend continuing. If Addison's hamstring keeps him out, Jefferson's target share spikes 17 points and every line is in play.
! QB status Kyler Murray Out — Every read here is conditional on the backup — Murray is Out, and the displayed 2026 volume has come almost entirely without him.
▼ YAC allowedbacks the lean 0.212 — 24th-easiest matchup of 32 — BUF allows a hair more YAC than average, but Jefferson's 0.77 yards over expected means he creates it himself — matchup is neutral on efficiency.
low confidence
Under 77.5
MIN +3 · O/U 44 · Implied MIN 20.5
The quarterback crater is the whole case: Kyler Murray is Out with a worsening hamstring, and his replacement runs a checkdown system that's left Jefferson under 80 yards in five of six 2026 games. The out is Jordan Addison's hamstring — if Addison sits, Jefferson's target share jumps 17 points via depth order (4 games, no with/without sample), and volume can drag a low-efficiency projection past the line.
Model ≠ market · our 27% vs the market's 50% — gaps of 23 points historically mean our number is the suspect one; weigh the lean with that discount.
Projection
62.1
28.677.595.7
Line
77.5
fanduel
Edge (Under)
+15.4
line − projection
Hit prob (Under)
73%
Market 50%
fanduel · O -114 / U -114
Recent games (Receiving yards)
77.5
101
92
55
32
DNP
79
44
33
'25w18w1w2w3w4w5w7w8
this szn avg 55.8 · last szn 61.63 of 7 over 77.5 · 1 DNP (no stat line — inactive or pre-roster)
Line shopping — 6 books
Book
Line
Over
Under
betmgm
76.5
-140
+105
betonlineag
79.5
-114
-114
betrivers
78.5
-115
-115
bovada
57.5
-280
+205
draftkings
77.5
-113BEST
-111BEST
fanduel
77.5
-114
-114
BEST compares prices at the 77.5 line only — an off-line number is a different bet.
Model ≠ market · our 26% vs the market's 49% — gaps of 22 points historically mean our number is the suspect one; weigh the lean with that discount.
The matchup
Neutral coverage outcomes; the backup quarterback decides the volume.
BUF's secondary sits near league-average across the board: 16th-easiest matchup of 32 on separation allowed (3.02 yards per target, 18 receiver-games), 21st-easiest on cushion (5.80 yards), 24th-easiest on YAC over expected (+0.21 across 18 games). Their soft zone is 11-20 yards (+0.63 EPA per throw on 73 attempts), just above Jefferson's 10.1-yard aDOT. No scheme edge, no glaring weakness — coverage outcomes are what the league gives on average.
Separation allowed
3.02 yds
16th-easiest matchup of 32
Cushion allowed
5.8 yds
21st-easiest matchup of 32
YAC allowed
0.21 yds
24th-easiest matchup of 32
BUF projected starters · nickel template — a layout, not measured alignment
403020403020
47Benford #47CB
3Hamlin #3FS
23QAlford #23NB
24Bishop #24SS
21Igbinosun #21CB
42Williams #42LB
8Bernard #8LB
98Sanders #98DE
96Walker #96NT
91Oliver #91DE
9Chubb #9LB
Throwing to himKyler MurrayOUTattempts, last 6
CPOE
+0.8 last 3
’26: +2.1 (6g) · ’25: -0.1 (5g)
Attempts/g
27.7 last 3
’26: 25.7 (6g) · ’25: 32.2 (5g)
Air yds/att
8.7 last 3
’26: 8.2 (6g) · ’25: 6.2 (5g)
Role & usage
Target share
28%
Air-yds share
36%
aDOT
10.1
Catch rate
66%
YAC +/-
0.77
RZ tgt share
36%
Route part.*
49%
Targets/g
7.1
*route participation is a proxy built on snap share — it underestimates true routes and is not yards per route run.
The displayed target share (28%) blends 6 games of 2026 at 27% toward 17 prior-season games at 31%, weighted 75% current. Volume has dropped: 6.7 targets per game now versus 8.3 last season. Red-zone role is intact (36% of 93 team targets, 25 total). The 84% snap share is the one stable thread — he's on the field, the ball just isn't finding him as often.
Target competition: Aaron Jones Sr. 11% · Jauan Jennings 10%
Redistribution touching this player
Jauan Jennings (Out) vacates 6.4% of targets → Justin Jefferson +0.6%, Tai Felton +3.6%, T.J. Hockenson +2.2%
IF Justin Jefferson (Questionable) vacates 27.4% of targets → Tai Felton +16.4%, T.J. Hockenson +6.8%, Gavin Bartholomew +4.1%
IF Jordan Addison (Questionable) vacates 21.7% of targets → Justin Jefferson +16.7%, Tai Felton +0.8%, T.J. Hockenson +4.2%
What breaks this
Kyler Murray is Out with a worsening hamstring; the backup has generated the volume profile shown. Jauan Jennings (Out, calf) vacates 6% of targets — Jefferson gains 0.6 points via 18 games with/without sample, barely measurable. Jordan Addison is Questionable with an improving hamstring; if Addison sits, Jefferson's target share jumps from 27% to 44% via depth order (4 games, no with/without data) — the direction is high-confidence, the magnitude is not. The conditional reads: if Addison plays, the backup's distribution keeps Jefferson's volume capped; if Addison sits, the target spike makes every over viable despite efficiency risk.
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BUF· Week 9
'25w18
w2
w3
w4
w5
w7
w8
Kyler MurrayOUTattempts, last 6